By Brian Dooley
Who won the election in Poland?
No-one, yet. Only three of the candidates got double figures, and none the required 50% needed, so the top two — Rafal Trzaskowski, who won 31.3%, and Karol Nawrocki, who won 29.5% will face a run off on June 1.
Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw, is from the ruling center-right Civic Platform. Nawrocki is to the right of him politically, an independent candidate supported by the opposition Law and Justice party, which ruled Poland between 2015 and 2023. Further right still is TikTok star Slawomir Mentzen, who came third with 14.8%, not enough to make the final cut.
Who’s the Favorite for the Run Off?
Very hard to say. Trzaskowski was expected to win yesterday’s first round by a much bigger margin. Much depends on whether Mentzen’s voters (plus those of another ultra far-right candidate Grzegorz Braun, who won 6.3%) will now go to Nawrocki, and if voters backing a few leftist candidates who earned around 10% between them will support Trzaskowski.
What are the Big Issues?
Security has been a major factor, as fears of a threat from Russia intensifies. Immigration is also included as part of the security debate, with rhetoric against migrants and people seeking asylum now part of mainstream politics.
In March, Poland’s government suspended the rights of people to claim asylum if they come through the border with Belarus. This has been a simmering issue for four years, as thousands of people from the Middle East and Africa, encouraged by the Belarussian government, have tried to cross into Poland from Belarus.
Both remaining candidates take a hard anti-immigrant line (Mentzen had suggested that migrants trying to force their way across the border should be shot.) Public sentiment is also steadily turning against Ukrainian refugees in Poland.
The vote is also seen as a referendum on Poland’s place in the European Union, with Trzaskowski regarded as much more pro-EU than Nawrocki.
Does the president in Poland have much real power?
Yes and No. The presidency is less about setting a legislative agenda than being able to veto bills. For example, the Civic Platform party hasn’t been able to deliver on its promise to liberalize abortion laws partly because of opposition from current Law and Justice President Andrzej Duda. The president is also commander of Poland’s military.
What would a Nawrocki win mean for Europe and Ukraine?
Quite a lot. Nawrocki’s campaign included a rally with George Simion, the ultranationalist far-right surprise loser of yesterday’s Romanian presidential election, where they both attacked the EU. Simion chanted “Donald Trump!” with the crowd and called Trump “a symbol of the fight for freedom which will transform the whole Europe”.
What happened in the Romanian election yesterday?
In a late plot twist, clear pre-election favorite Simion lost to centrist mayor of Bucharest Nicusor Dan, who took 53.6 per cent of the vote. Simion had run on a platform opposing military aid to neighboring Ukraine.
Karolina, a Ukrainian living in Romania, said: ““It’s good that Simion lost, Romania doesn’t need a puppet for Putin. This rejection of far-right nationalism is a good result for Romania and for Ukraine.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also welcomed the result, calling it an “historic victory,” and that it is “important we have Romania as a reliable partner.”
